Big Tech's $725bn Capex Is SK Hynix HBM Demand, Structurally Locked In
The Financial Times tallied Big Tech's combined 2026 capex at $725bn, sending free cash flow to a decade low. Markets read this as a warning. But for Korean HBM investors, this number signals that SK Hynix purchase orders are structurally committed and difficult to cancel.
The Financial Times aggregated the numbers: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon together will spend $725bn on capital expenditure in 2026, dragging free cash flow to a decade low. Meta plans $60bn–$65bn for data centers alone. OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank pledged up to $500bn in U.S. infrastructure at the White House.
Market consensus: Big Tech is over-investing in infrastructure and destroying shareholder value.
Buy thesis: This $725bn is structurally committed demand for HBM memory that cannot be easily reversed.
Why Markets Are Reading This Wrong
Selling Big Tech on FCF decline is a reasonable trade. But for Korean semiconductor investors, the same number reads differently.
Every AI data center GPU requires High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). An NVIDIA H100 uses 80GB of HBM3E. When Big Tech commits $725bn in capex, a large portion of that means GPU purchases, and those GPUs contain SK Hynix HBM.
Known fact: SK Hynix holds preferred supplier status for NVIDIA HBM3E. Until Samsung Electronics completes its HBM3E qualification, this does not change.
Data center commitments include real estate leases, construction contracts, and power agreements. The cost of cancellation exceeds execution costs. HBM demand is therefore insulated from short-term macro volatility.
The Buy Case
Demand visibility is at a multi-year high. Meta has announced a 2GW data center campus in Louisiana. Microsoft committed $80bn in AI infrastructure. These plans cover 2026–2028. Purchase orders for HBM are either issued or pre-committed against these projects. This level of forward demand visibility is rare in semiconductor cycles.
Burry’s SOXX short is a different bet. Reports of Michael Burry’s short position on the SOXX semiconductor ETF (SOXX includes Qualcomm, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices) represent a valuation bet on U.S.-designed chips. SK Hynix (000660) is not in SOXX. Burry is hedging against U.S. semiconductor valuation multiples, not against physical HBM demand from Korean suppliers.
SK Hynix (000660) current position. As of May 9, 2026, the stock hit a 4th consecutive all-time high at ₩1,686,000. “It’s expensive” is a weaker argument when order backlog is confirmed and structurally growing.
Risks
Samsung HBM3E qualification completion is the primary risk. When Samsung qualifies, SK Hynix’s near-monopoly on NVIDIA HBM3E supply will face competition. Market expectations point to late 2026.
If Big Tech accelerates capex faster than expected, HBM supply may temporarily lag demand — creating a short-term price spike followed by correction risk.
Macro risk: If U.S. export controls expand to restrict NVIDIA GPU exports, HBM purchases could be indirectly curtailed.