What if you had put 10 million won into the Nasdaq instead of the Korean index five years ago?

Experiment setup

Result

Why run this

The claim that Korean equities go nowhere and that money simply belongs in the US has been repeated more than almost anything else in recent years. Testing it against actual closing prices means buying both on the same day with the same money and opening the account now. Both instruments here are Korea-listed exchange traded funds, which keeps currency conversion and overseas accounts out of the comparison.

The hypothesis held for four and a half years

From September 2021 to January 2026 the Nasdaq side was never behind on a month-end valuation. The widest gap came at the end of 2024, when TIGER US Nasdaq 100 stood at 17.53 million won against KODEX 200's 7.81 million. On the same 10 million won principal, one was up more than 75 percent while the other was still down 22 percent. Anyone who opened the account at that moment and closed the Korean position would be hard to argue with.

The order flipped in the last seven months

At the end of February 2026 KODEX 200 passed the Nasdaq side for the first time at 22.92 million won, slipped back once in March, and has stayed ahead since April. It reached 33.74 million won at the end of June before settling at 26.57 million on August 27. Choosing five years is arbitrary, and running the same calculation two months earlier would have put the gap above 8 million won rather than 4.22 million.

What this result does not say

This is a snapshot cut at one start and one end. Move the start to early 2022, or the valuation date back to 2025, and the conclusion inverts. What is worth taking from it is not that one side is better, but that a ranking held for four and a half years can reverse inside seven months. Maximum drawdowns were close, 32.7 percent for KODEX 200 and 30.8 percent for TIGER US Nasdaq 100. Either choice meant sitting through a stretch that took away roughly a third.

The exchange rate is already inside the number

TIGER US Nasdaq 100 is unhedged, so the won-dollar rate rides along with the index return. The figures here are the combined won valuation and are not separated out. A hedged product over the same window would give a different result.

Key numbers

KODEX 200

26.57 million won (+165.7%)

TIGER US Nasdaq 100

22.35 million won (+123.5%)

Gap after five years

4.22 million won

Nasdaq side ahead

September 2021 to January 2026

Gap at the end of 2024

17.53 million won vs 7.81 million won

Max drawdown in the window

KODEX 200 -32.7%, TIGER US Nasdaq 100 -30.8%

FAQ

Does this mean the Korean index beats the Nasdaq?

No. It means it did for money bought on August 27, 2021 and opened on August 27, 2026. Opened at the end of 2024, the Nasdaq side was more than twice ahead; opened at the end of June, two months ago, the Korean lead was far wider than it is now. Where you cut the window decides the answer.

Why not use US-listed ETFs?

Conversion timing, conversion fees and overseas capital gains tax all enter the picture and make a like-for-like comparison harder. Two Korea-listed funds keep everything from purchase to valuation in a single currency.

Would distributions change the outcome?

Both figures would rise. The size of the gap could shift because the two funds distribute at different rates, but the shape, a ranking held for four and a half years and then reversed, does not change with distributions.

When were the drawdowns?

KODEX 200 was 32.7 percent below its peak at the end of September 2022; TIGER US Nasdaq 100 was 30.8 percent below at the end of December 2022. Both had a stretch that year giving back close to a third.