What if you had bought SK hynix, the industry number two, instead of Samsung Electronics three years ago?
We assumed 10M won invested in each stock at the August 22, 2023 close. By August 21, 2026, Samsung Electronics had multiplied 4.2x (+322.7%) and SK hynix 14.9x (+1,385.0%), a gap of 106.2M won. As earnings hopes concentrated on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for data-center accelerators, the market priced the industry's number one and number two completely differently. The runner-up's ride was rough, though: hynix reached the valuation date down 35% from its June 2026 peak in just two months.
Hypothesis
“Within the same industry, buying the number-one name by market cap should beat buying the number two.”
Experiment setup
Buy 10M won of SK hynix at the August 22, 2023 close. As a benchmark, the same amount goes into Samsung Electronics on the same day. Dividends, fees and taxes excluded; fractional shares assumed.
- First purchase
- 2023-08-22
- Valuation date
- 2026-08-21
- Total invested
- ₩10M
- Stocks
- SK hynix · Samsung Electronics
Result
Final value
₩148.5M+1385.0%
Trend chart
Unit: KRWMonth-end closing values. Both lines start from 10M won on August 22, 2023.
Verdict
Hypothesis rejected10M won became 42.27M won in Samsung Electronics and 148.5M won in SK hynix. What decided these three years was not the ranking but what each company sells.
Why this experiment
"If you don't know what to buy, buy the industry leader" is one of the longest-lived pieces of stock-market folklore. The leader won't go under, and when the cycle turns up it benefits the most, or so the logic goes. Korean semiconductors over the past three years were a good stage to test this: a clear number one and number two, and a cycle that turned up dramatically.
What made the gap
The two accounts tracked each other for the first year. The split began in spring 2024, when demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in data-center accelerators lifted earnings expectations, and the company with the larger share of its revenue there ran first. By autumn 2024 the Samsung account was underwater (-19%) while the hynix account stood at 1.6x, and through that stretch the gap became irreversible. The Samsung account did not recover its principal until July 2025.
The runner-up's price includes the turbulence
The hynix account's journey was not comfortable. In the first half of 2026 alone it swung -24% in a month (March 2026) and +81% in a month (May 2026), and after peaking at 227.5M won at the end of June it arrived at the valuation date at 148.5M won, a 35% drop in two months. Measured from the peak, nearly 80M won evaporated. A company purely exposed to one business does not just rise harder; it falls harder too.
The folklore is not so much wrong as incomplete
This result does not say leaders are bad. A leader's business is broad, so its exposure to any single cycle is diluted, and that same dilution is also a cushion; the numbers simply made that property visible. In a stretch where the cycle turned up dramatically, the company most purely exposed to it won regardless of ranking. Had the three years run the other way, the same property would have worked in reverse.
Key numbers
- SK hynix entry
- 116,500 won (2023-08-22)
- SK hynix valuation close
- 1,730,000 won (2026-08-21)
- Samsung entry · valuation
- 66,600 won · 281,500 won
- Multiples
- 14.9x vs 4.2x
- Gap between accounts
- ₩106.2M
- Hynix from its peak
- -34.7% (peak 2026-06-30)
FAQ
- Does this mean SK hynix was the right pick back then?
- No. This report applies one hypothesis to prices that have already happened; the next three years are a different question. That every choice looks obvious in hindsight is itself part of what the experiment shows.
- Did the Samsung buyer lose money?
- No. Samsung Electronics multiplied 4.2x (+322.7%) over the three years, a strong result by any standard. The subject of this report is the comparison: the same money became 14.9x in another stock in the same industry.
- When did the gap open up?
- From spring 2024. A 1.2x lead in February 2024 widened to 1.7x by June, crossed 2x between autumn 2024 and spring 2025 while Samsung sat below its principal, and the rally from late 2025 locked it in.
How this was calculated
Daily closing prices for SK hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) from Yahoo Finance. Both bought at the August 22, 2023 close and valued at the August 21, 2026 close. Dividend reinvestment, fees, taxes and lot-size rules excluded; fractional shares assumed.
Data sources
- [1] SK hynix (000660.KS) daily prices · Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-21
- [2] Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) daily prices · Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-21
Stocks in this report
These are hypothetical results computed from past prices. A real trade would differ with fees, taxes, lot sizes and execution timing, and past returns say nothing about future returns. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The money flow and stock signals this service shows are estimated, for-reference information based on price and volume. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security, nor investment advice. It is a prior-close daily batch, not real-time quotes, and all investment decisions and responsibility are your own. The Trade button is a convenience link to your chosen brokerage's app/website; orders are placed directly at the brokerage and InverseOne is not involved in any order.